Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 100361.172096 105750.522484 111133.156430 116908.905800 122927.370909 129010.256534 135619.272174
2025-08-10 91214.235027 99446.519908 107892.749916 117195.387260 127142.612219 137449.238411 148924.411230
2025-08-17 84496.944751 94658.802653 105309.207818 117281.743237 130342.849085 144136.400576 159781.859896
2025-08-24 80152.206142 91847.109493 104322.789543 118585.012917 134400.311197 151362.272865 170890.843656
2025-08-31 75691.521444 88503.261151 102386.435651 118494.701728 136614.349539 156310.219778 179280.677484
2025-09-07 72942.946234 86824.267570 102075.770391 120002.741321 140420.619819 162873.654274 189351.732358
2025-09-14 70260.345102 85024.972895 101455.355871 120999.516758 143513.680443 168534.365225 198337.844112
2025-09-21 67370.460083 82818.014770 100217.427084 121147.898662 145517.200384 172867.205008 205750.155178
2025-09-28 64785.026199 80829.793112 99108.805656 121329.933197 147460.222581 177055.629083 212946.085853
2025-10-05 63405.172210 80180.709029 99490.284004 123187.869226 151303.862955 183409.233673 222643.324683
2025-10-12 61966.223405 79381.896664 99627.405409 124699.540768 154699.543727 189222.069562 231716.608733
2025-10-19 60286.660080 78214.569587 99257.549902 125547.581283 157264.042908 194034.973879 239613.382171
2025-10-26 58294.365498 76613.890957 98328.779791 125701.422875 158998.831280 197893.532644 246442.426141
2025-11-02 56566.863256 75278.869565 97670.164633 126138.493858 161044.624372 202111.480581 253713.389630
2025-11-09 54789.512538 73816.272635 96797.008691 126260.755553 162667.771397 205799.255020 260345.152779
2025-11-16 53745.730942 73235.448610 96977.486866 127651.902455 165823.205974 211331.747536 269220.524130
2025-11-23 52053.026313 71769.266037 96001.104414 127557.613938 167112.819945 214578.378608 275318.209515
2025-11-30 51250.020315 71414.729226 96395.721131 129159.423828 170494.576788 220383.067934 284562.346595
2025-12-07 50244.732528 70760.568923 96379.414415 130217.898797 173184.327040 225338.755718 292784.868496
2025-12-14 48888.102877 69602.761168 95681.091503 130375.464317 174717.424544 228854.105776 299234.857885
2025-12-21 47613.535155 68513.833125 95035.791539 130568.742584 176271.484335 232383.273789 305705.368173
2025-12-28 47164.615085 68506.525913 95778.467238 132541.211954 180088.235980 238749.985533 315745.020103
2026-01-04 46584.315227 68300.772762 96245.352618 134145.831040 183434.644853 244540.196447 325095.479152